Nepal's Political Turmoil Signals Trouble for India in South Asia

Tue Oct 21 2025 04:27:33 GMT+0300 (Eastern European Summer Time)

As Nepal faces violent protests and a governmental upheaval, India braces for potential influences on its regional stability. PM Narendra Modi emphasizes the importance of peace in the neighboring nation amidst escalating violence.

Nepal has witnessed violent protests leading to the resignation of PM KP Sharma Oli, raising concerns for India, which shares strong ties with its neighbor. Over 20 people have died in these protests, and the situation recalls recent upheaval in other South Asian nations. With the strategic implications of Nepal's stability on India's border, officials urge peace as both countries navigate their historical and political complexities.

Nepal has become the third country in India's immediate neighborhood to see a violent uprising topple its government in recent years. Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli resigned after more than 20 people died in clashes with police during anti-government demonstrations triggered by a social media ban.

A nationwide curfew is in place and the army is attempting to bring the situation under control after protesters stormed parliament and set fire to the homes of several politicians. For many, the scenes in Kathmandu were reminiscent of the turmoil that gripped Bangladesh last year and Sri Lanka in 2022.

Though Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are also India's close neighbors in South Asia, Delhi's relationship with Kathmandu is special because of historic people-to-people, economic, and strategic ties. Nepal shares a largely open border of more than 1,750km (466 miles) with five Indian states; Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Sikkim, Bihar, and West Bengal.

Delhi is keenly watching developments across the border, with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi swiftly reacting to the unfolding events. The violence in Nepal is heart-rending. I am anguished that many young people have lost their lives, Modi wrote in a post on X on Tuesday.

Stressing that stability, peace and prosperity of Nepal are of utmost importance, he appealed to all my brothers and sisters in Nepal to support peace. Modi also chaired an emergency security meeting with his cabinet colleagues to discuss the situation.

Much like its surprise at the uprising in Sri Lanka in 2022, analysts say India was caught off-guard by the developments in Nepal, with Oli resigning just a week ahead of a planned visit to Delhi. Instability in the country is a cause of concern for India due to Nepal's strategic location next to China.

The unrest has implications for the large Nepalese diaspora in India, estimated at 3.5 million and potentially much higher. Given the close cultural, familial, and historical ties between the countries, the unfolding situations in Nepal could lead to increased tensions across the border.

While a fragile calm returned to Kathmandu, experts warn that India will have to navigate a complex political landscape, as there is widespread anger among protesters at all major political parties. The outcome remains unclear, and India must maintain diplomatic relations while managing existing grievances.

In the broader context, the crisis in Nepal comes amid low points in India's relations with Pakistan and Bangladesh, adding layers to regional instability that India must address while pursuing its ambitions for power and influence.