In brief
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who earned a Nobel Peace Prize for ending a war with Eritrea, took a decisive victory at Ethiopia’s election, keeping 438 of 501 seats for his Prosperity Party. Meanwhile, the country’s internal divisions—most notably in Tigray and the Amhara and Oromia regions—continue to simmer. Security forces and opposition groups report violence, and the fragile peace agreement signed in 2022 is under threat. Analysts warn that the new electoral mandate could either consolidate Abiy’s power or accelerate conflict, potentially spilling into the wider Horn of Africa.
Abiy Ahmed, the 49‑year‑old Prime Minister who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for ending a war with Eritrea, secured an overwhelming victory at Ethiopia’s 1 June election.
His Prosperity Party captured 438 of the 501 seats that have been declared, giving the party a clear majority in the new parliament. The election, however, was shadowed by reports of repression, interference by armed groups and limited participation from opposition parties, especially in the northern Tigray region.
Many of Abiy’s supporters hail the outcome as a continuation of the economic gains seen since he rose to power in 2018, citing increased employment and growth in key sectors. Yet security analysts warn that the country’s internal divisions—particularly in the Amhara and Oromia regions where militias such as Fano and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) reject the electoral process—could intensify fighting.
"The Tigrayans bear responsibility for the growing tensions," says analyst Cameron Hudson.
The Tigray region, still reeling from a two‑year civil war that ended in 2022, remains excluded from the poll. Since the conflict, Eritrea has aligned with the Tigrayan leadership, raising the possibility that any new clash could attract both Eritrea and Ethiopia’s rivals, further destabilising the Horn of Africa.
Adderitin that Abiy’s posture has shifted from peace to a consolidation of power, a United States visa‑restriction has been imposed on “hard‑line members of the TPLF and their immediate family.” The move comes amid growing reports that the Tigrayan region is carrying out forced recruitment of young men for its forces.
While the International Crisis Group’s Magnus Taylor claims an immediate return to war is unlikely, he labels the ongoing low‑level tension a “dangerous scenario.” With Ethiopia’s diplomatic ties to Sudan also in question, the risk of a regional spill‑over remains high.
The coming months will be critical: will Abiy’s new mandate bring peace and economic reform, or further exacerbation of a fragile fragile nation already mired in conflict? The world watches, as the future of Ethiopia and its neighbours hangs in balance.
