In brief
The Thai election held recently has delivered a shocking result as Anutin Charnvirakul's Bhumjaithai party won a substantial majority, defying pre-election polls that favored the progressive People's Party. This shift in power raises questions about the electoral dynamics in Thailand, particularly how Bhumjaithai managed to secure votes across various demographics, contrasting sharply with the struggle experienced by the reformists.
As the dust from what has been a hard-fought election campaign in Thailand settles, many Thais may be rubbing their eyes and asking, what just happened? Most of the opinion polls published before the election predicted a win for the progressive People's Party. Some suggested it would get more than 200 seats in parliament, a significant improvement on its already impressive 2023 result when it won 151. Few polls put the party of Prime Minister Anutin Chanrvirakul ahead.Yet once most of the votes had been counted, it was clear Anutin had achieved a stunning victory, and the young reformists had suffered a big setback. With a projected share of more than 190 seats, the path of Anutin's Bhumjaithai party is clear to form the next government, albeit with coalition partners.So why did a youthful, progressive party with an imaginative and tech-savvy campaign do so poorly compared to a transactional, old-style party with little ideological identity aside from strong loyalty to the monarchy?The mixed voting system played a part. Voters in Thailand cast two ballots, one for a candidate in their constituency and one for their preferred party. At the national level, the People's Party did much better in the party list than Bhumjaithai, although this was still a big drop compared to the more than 14 million that its predecessor won in 2023.However, the party list accounts for only 20% of the 500 seats in parliament, while as many as 80% are allocated by local contests. This is where the People's Party, being relatively new and urban-based, is weaker due to its lack of rural networks. Bhumjaithai, by comparison, has adeptly used its substantial resources to win over local power brokers.Anutin's party benefitted from a consolidated conservative voter base as well as successful tactics to appeal to the electorate, distinguishing himself as a standard-bearer for Thai conservatism. The previous election saw the rise of the reformists, driven by a desire for change after a prolonged military rule that few voters want to see reversed.In stark contrast, in this election, there were no defining issues. The reformists were further strained by a dismissive public response to their controversial alliance with Anutin, whose party promised no cabinet positions, allowing him to strengthen his leadership appeal.Political turmoil affecting the main opposition party, Pheu Thai, which has suffered in recent years, also contributed to the significant shift in voter sentiment, providing an opportunity for Bhumjaithai to secure its position.Anutin's Bhumjaithai, characterized by a clearer vision and backing from established conservative factions, now prepares to form a government, with the potential for a full four-year term, a rarity for civilian leadership in the last two decades of Thai politics.
