Throughout US President Donald Trump's second term in office, traders have been betting millions of dollars just before he makes major announcements.
The BBC has examined trade volume data on several financial markets and matched them to some of the president's most significant market-moving statements.
It found a consistent pattern of spikes just hours, or sometimes minutes, before a social media post or media interview was made public.
Some analysts say it bears the hallmarks of illegal insider trading, whereby bets are made by people based on information that is not available to the general public.
Others say the picture is more complicated and that some traders have become more adept at anticipating the president's interventions.
Here are five of the most significant examples.
9 March 2026: 'The war is very complete, pretty much'
Some of the biggest movements have been in oil trades on the futures market.
Nine days into the US-Israel war with Iran, Trump told CBS News in a phone interview that the conflict was 'very complete, pretty much'.
The traders who placed those bets will have made millions of dollars from the movement in oil prices.
23 March 2026: 'Complete and total resolution to hostilities'
On 23 March, just two days after threatening to 'obliterate' Iran's power plants, Trump posted on Truth Social that Washington had held 'VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS' with Tehran over a 'COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION' to hostilities.
Immediately, stocks rose and the US benchmark price of oil - which had been climbing - fell sharply.
Again, a pattern of unusual trading preceded these events with an unusually high number of bets ahead of the announcement on one fund that tracks the S&P 500.
In January 2026, one user won $436,000 betting on Nicolás Maduro being out of office by the end of January, raising further questions about the integrity of trading activities in the financial markets.
Despite these findings, no investigations have been confirmed into insider trading allegations linked to social trading platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, with statements from regulators affirming they maintain strict standards against unethical market practices.
