WASHINGTON (PulseWire) — The U.S. population is expected to grow by only 15 million in the next 30 years, a reduction in estimates compared to previous years, driven largely by the hardline immigration policies of the Trump administration and an increasingly aging population, according to a report released by the Congressional Budget Office.
The CBO's latest projections suggest the U.S. population will reach 364 million by 2056, which is 2.2% lower than previous predictions. Moreover, without immigration, the U.S. population may even begin to decline as early as 2030. These findings reflect the impact of strict immigration enforcement and policies aimed at mass deportations, which could see approximately 320,000 people forcibly removed from the country over the coming decade.
Demographer William Frey of the Brookings Institution emphasized that even with the potential end of Trump-era immigration policies in three years, the damage done is significant. He noted that social safety nets like Social Security and Medicare could face added strain due to a shrinking labor force contributing less in taxes.
Current predictions also indicate that by the end of the decade, the entire cohort of baby boomers—those born between 1946 and 1964—will exceed 65 years of age, further exacerbating demographic challenges.
Importantly, immigration has historically been a fluctuating factor in U.S. population growth, especially now that birth rates are predicted to stay below replacement levels. With fewer immigrants entering the labor force and potential reductions in birth rates, the U.S. could face a critical demographic shift.
The administration's aggressive deportation strategies, supported financially by recent tax cuts aimed at bolstering enforcement, signal a pivotal moment for U.S. demographic trends. As the labor force shrinks, the population's overall sustainability hangs in the balance.
The study warns that as these policies take effect, a continued decline in the number of immigrants could lead the population to hover around its peak, with projections suggesting it could stabilize by the mid-2050s if current immigration patterns continue. The long-term implications of these shifts for the U.S. economy and societal structure will be crucial to monitor in the years to come.
