The 'thorny' issues that threaten to derail a Russia-Ukraine peace deal

Complex Negotiations: The Stumbling Blocks in Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks

Russia, the US, and Ukraine agree that a deal on ending almost four years of full-scale war is edging closer but, in the words of President Donald Trump, one or two very thorny, very tough issues remain.

Two of the trickiest issues in Washington's 20-point plan involve territory and the fate of Europe's biggest nuclear plant, currently occupied by Russia. The Kremlin agrees with Trump that negotiations are at a final stage, and Zelensky's next step is to meet European leaders in France on 6 January, but any one of the sticking points could jeopardize a deal.

Fate of Ukraine's industrial heartland coveted by Putin

Vladimir Putin has not budged from his maximalist demand for the whole of Ukraine's industrial Donbas, although Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky has offered a compromise. Russian forces occupy most of the Luhansk region in the east but little more than 75% of Donetsk, and Putin wants it all, including the remaining fortress belt cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

Zelensky stated, We can't just withdraw, it's out of our law... We can't lose those people. He proposed that Ukrainian forces might pull back to create a demilitarized zone, but it is difficult to imagine Putin agreeing to any compromise as Russia's military claims to be advancing.

Ukraine's huge nuclear power plant in Russian hands

Since March 2022, Russia has occupied Europe's biggest nuclear plant at Enerhodar. Although the facility has been in cold shutdown mode for over three years, external power supplied by Ukraine helps prevent a meltdown. To restart the facility requires significant investment, complicated by Russia's insistence that only it can manage the plant securely.

Lack of mutual trust despite positive rhetoric

Trust plays a monumental role in the negotiations, which are stricken with distrust on both sides. While President Trump suggests Putin might support Ukraine's successes, Zelensky disagrees, declaring his mistrust.

Other sticking points that could derail deal

Additional issues include Ukraine's demand for NATO-style security guarantees, financial reparations from Russia for damages amounting to $800bn, and territorial compromises regarding NATO membership. Meanwhile, the desire for a popular vote on any peace agreement further complicates discussions.

Could Ukrainians hold a vote on a deal?

Zelensky cites that 87% of Ukrainians desire peace but 85% reject giving up Donbas, stressing the need for a referendum to validate any agreement. However, the Kremlin warns that a ceasefire might lead to resumed hostilities without a lasting solution.