People in China will pay a 13% sales tax on contraceptives from 1 January, while childcare services will be exempt, as the world's second-largest economy tries to boost birth rates. An overhaul of the tax system announced late last year removes many exemptions that were in place since 1994, when China was still enforcing its decades-long one-child rule. It also exempts marriage-related services and elderly care from value added tax (VAT) - part of a broader effort that includes extending parental leave and issuing cash handouts.

Faced with an ageing population and sluggish economy, Beijing has been trying hard to encourage more young Chinese people to marry, and couples to have children. Official figures show that China's population has shrunk three years in a row, with just 9.54 million babies born in 2024. That is around half of the number of births recorded a decade ago, when China started to ease its rules on how many children people could have.

Still, the tax on contraceptives, including condoms, birth control pills and devices, has sparked concern about unwanted pregnancies and HIV rates, as well as ridicule. Some people point out that it would take a lot more than pricey condoms to persuade them to have children. As one retailer urged shoppers to stock up ahead of the price hike, a social media user joked: I'll buy a lifetime's worth of condoms now.

China is one of the most expensive countries in which to raise a child, according to a 2024 report by the YuWa Population Research Institute in Beijing. Costs are pushed up by school fees in a highly competitive academic environment, and the challenge women have juggling work and parenting, the study said. The economic slowdown, partly brought on by a property crisis that has hit savings, has left families, and especially young people, feeling uncertain or less confident about their future.

Observers appear divided on the aim of the tax overhaul. The idea that a tax hike on condoms will impact birth rates is overthinking it, says demographer Yi Fuxian from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He believes Beijing is keen to collect taxes wherever it can as it battles a housing market slump and growing national debt.

What is hampering efforts, she adds, is that a lot of the policies and subsidies will have to be implemented by indebted provincial governments - and it's unclear if they can spare sufficient resources. Recently, there have been media reports that women in some provinces have received calls from local officials asking about their menstrual cycles and plans to have children. The local health bureau in Yunnan province said such data was needed to identify expectant mothers. However, this has not helped the government's image.

Observers and women themselves argue that the country's male-dominated leadership fails to understand the social changes underpinning these broader shifts. Concerns remain that making contraception, a necessity, more expensive could lead financially-strapped individuals to take risks. As societal pressures mount, young people may increasingly choose to prioritize financial stability over starting families.