As global headlines recognize India's status as the world's most populous nation, discussions surrounding its rapidly declining fertility rates and shifting demographics have grown increasingly urgent. In the wake of projections indicating potential economic and political disadvantages for southern states, leaders from Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu have recently begun advocating for larger families through proposed incentives.
Historically, India experienced a significant decline in fertility rates, decreasing from 5.7 births per woman in 1950 to an average of just two today—below the replacement level of 2.1 required to maintain a stable population. Notably, 17 of India's 29 states have already fallen below the critical fertility rate, with the southern states achieving this milestone much earlier than their northern counterparts.
While the five southern states—Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana—lead this demographic shift, they are now faced with the impact of impending electoral reforms. Officials fear that a delimitation of electoral seats scheduled for 2026 will further diminish their political representation and funding, as more populous northern states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar could gain additional seats and federal revenue shares.
Concerns about the implications of an ageing population exacerbate this political unease. India's rapid demographic transition could see the country become significantly aged in a short period. According to demographic experts, India's speed in ageing—predicted to reach a 14% share of elderly citizens within just 28 years—outpaces similar transitions in developed nations.
Crucially, societal factors traditionally supportive of elderly care are eroding. Migration, urbanisation, and changing labour markets are leading to fewer caregivers for the elderly population, which is expected to surge in the coming years. Many elderly individuals, over 40%, belong to the poorest wealth quintile, making addressing their care needs more challenging.
Compounding these demographic and economic pressures, influential figures have called for an increase in birth rates. Mohan Bhagwat, the chief of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), underscored the need for families to have at least three children to counter declining fertility and secure a prosperous future for India. However, experts contend that simply encouraging larger families may not address the underlying socio-economic changes that inform fertility choices.
As countries such as South Korea and Greece confront their own declining birth rates, artificial incentives to increase fertility have proven ineffective, as demographic trends remain steadfast despite government intervention.
The pressing question for states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala, facing labour shortages, is how to adapt without a sufficient influx of young workers. Solutions may involve extending working ages, investing in healthy ageing initiatives, and capturing the economic potential of India's working-age demographic, identified as a crucial opportunity until 2047.
Focused efforts to promote healthy, productive older populations, along with enhancing job creation and resource allocation for ageing citizens, will be essential to ensuring socio-economic stability and continued growth for generations to come.
Historically, India experienced a significant decline in fertility rates, decreasing from 5.7 births per woman in 1950 to an average of just two today—below the replacement level of 2.1 required to maintain a stable population. Notably, 17 of India's 29 states have already fallen below the critical fertility rate, with the southern states achieving this milestone much earlier than their northern counterparts.
While the five southern states—Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana—lead this demographic shift, they are now faced with the impact of impending electoral reforms. Officials fear that a delimitation of electoral seats scheduled for 2026 will further diminish their political representation and funding, as more populous northern states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar could gain additional seats and federal revenue shares.
Concerns about the implications of an ageing population exacerbate this political unease. India's rapid demographic transition could see the country become significantly aged in a short period. According to demographic experts, India's speed in ageing—predicted to reach a 14% share of elderly citizens within just 28 years—outpaces similar transitions in developed nations.
Crucially, societal factors traditionally supportive of elderly care are eroding. Migration, urbanisation, and changing labour markets are leading to fewer caregivers for the elderly population, which is expected to surge in the coming years. Many elderly individuals, over 40%, belong to the poorest wealth quintile, making addressing their care needs more challenging.
Compounding these demographic and economic pressures, influential figures have called for an increase in birth rates. Mohan Bhagwat, the chief of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), underscored the need for families to have at least three children to counter declining fertility and secure a prosperous future for India. However, experts contend that simply encouraging larger families may not address the underlying socio-economic changes that inform fertility choices.
As countries such as South Korea and Greece confront their own declining birth rates, artificial incentives to increase fertility have proven ineffective, as demographic trends remain steadfast despite government intervention.
The pressing question for states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala, facing labour shortages, is how to adapt without a sufficient influx of young workers. Solutions may involve extending working ages, investing in healthy ageing initiatives, and capturing the economic potential of India's working-age demographic, identified as a crucial opportunity until 2047.
Focused efforts to promote healthy, productive older populations, along with enhancing job creation and resource allocation for ageing citizens, will be essential to ensuring socio-economic stability and continued growth for generations to come.
