In brief
President Trump’s recent rally with defence chiefs asked for faster production of weapons, yet the all‑out attack on Iran used up thousands of missiles and interceptors. Analysts say it will take years to refill stocks of Tomahawk ground‑attack missiles and Patriot air‑defences. With the U.S. stockpile declining, critics worry the Navy and Air Force could lack depth during a future East‑Asian conflict, while the Pentagon also faces demands to supply Ukraine and Taiwan with missiles. The war has cost about $37.5 bn, with most of the money spent on munitions, and critics argue that the pause is a watch‑and‑wait after the U.S. drain on its own arsenals.
In a recent Pennsylvania Defence and Innovation Summit, President Trump urged defence chiefs to accelerate weapon production – but the all‑out assault on Iran has already depleted thousands of missiles and interceptors, raising concerns that U.S. stockpiles may be running out.
A depleted U.S. arsenal
The war saw the U.S. fire roughly 13,000 targets and use more than 1,000 Tomahawk missiles, the CSIS estimates, with the 1,430 Patriot interceptors flown at a cost of about $4 million each. With production taking 3‑5 years by design, the Pentagon now faces a “critical shortfall” and may not return to pre‑war levels until 2031.
All eyes on Taiwan and the Pacific
The Iran conflict coincides with the so‑called “Davidson window” – a Pentagon assessment that China might try to invade Taiwan in the next six years. As the U.S. hands over combat‑tested missiles to Ukraine, Persian Shales must limit use of Patriots and other air‑defences, constraining the forces that could later confront Chinese missile and drone swarms.
What about Europe?
In October 2025, the U.S. refrained from supplying Tomahawks to Ukraine, citing stockpile concerns – a decision that echoed Trump’s later pause on Iran. Ukraine now calls for Patriot batteries, arguing their shortage is the “depletion of resources” in the war, while U.S. officials hope domestic production could supplement foreign aid.
The aftermath
White House spokesperson Anna Kelly posted that the U.S. military has enough munitions to meet any strategic goal. Still, analysts warn that every missile fired – whether against Iran, on the Ukrainian frontlines, or held for Taiwan – comes from a rapidly shrinking pool, with Iran’s own manufacturing capacity severely impaired.
