At an overseas education consultancy in the Indian capital, Delhi, students sit with their parents, flipping through brochures from universities in Italy, Germany, and Australia. But one destination, once the top choice, is now largely absent.
Until 2023, most of our applications were for Canada, says Shobhit Anand, who runs the consultancy, which helps students navigate the admission process, including visa applications. Now, he says they have seen a drop of nearly 80%.
People don't want to apply to Canada anymore. We are also seeing a very high visa rejection rate. According to a report submitted by Canada's auditor general to parliament last month, the share of Indians in the country's incoming international student population was just 8.1% in September 2025 - a sharp drop from 51.6% in 2023.
There are a number of reasons: visa and immigration restrictions, high living costs, and, in 2023, a diplomatic crisis that damaged ties between the two countries (the situation is better now).
For years, Canada held a strong appeal for middle-class Indian families. Its private colleges offered a seemingly reliable pathway - even for average students - to study abroad and eventually settle there.
The route was mostly straightforward: enrol in a two- or three-year vocational course, find a job after graduation, and, within a few years, apply for permanent residency. The process typically took around five years, experts say. It worked - until it didn't.
The shift has been driven by a mix of policy changes and economic pressures. In early 2024, Canada announced a two-year restriction on how many international students could be admitted to its undergraduate and diploma programmes, capping it at around 350,000 study permits per year (postgraduate courses were unaffected).
This was a big blow for many Indian students. At the same time, living costs surged, and jobs became harder to find. Rents climbed sharply across major cities, while financial requirements tightened. The Guaranteed Investment Certificate (GIC) - proof of funds required to study and live in Canada - was doubled from C$10,000 ($7,227; £5,378) to more than C$20,000 in 2024.
As consultants note, getting a study visa has also become harder. Study permit rejections rose from 38% in 2023 to 52% in 2024 in Canada, according to ICEF Monitor, which focuses on international student mobility. In price-sensitive countries like India, where studying abroad depends on careful financial planning, families are now far less willing to take that kind of risk.
So the question has shifted from how to go to Canada to whether to go at all. There's real fear. Even if you get there, can you make it work? Anand says. The Canadian auditor general's report also mentions concerns around a now-scrapped fast-track visa system known as the Student Direct Stream (SDS).
Many private colleges expanded rapidly during what experts describe as the international student boom - a surge in overseas enrolment, particularly after the pandemic, when Canada saw record numbers of foreign students. But many of these institutions offered limited academic value and operated largely as revenue-driven businesses, experts say. As a result, job opportunities failed to keep pace with the growing number of graduates, leaving many students unable to recover the high cost of studying abroad.
For students like Tanishq Khurana, the decision is no longer as straightforward. The 17-year-old had planned to apply last summer, but a conversation with a consultant made him pause. He was told about rising visa rejections and colleges limiting undergraduate admissions. That made him rethink everything.
As diplomatic relations improve, there are signs of hope. Prime Minister Mark Carney visited India earlier this year, accompanied by officials from several top Canadian universities. There are efforts to rebuild relations, including new education partnerships and scholarship initiatives. But for many Indian students, what was once a plan is now a bet.
