Escalating Tensions in South Sudan: Fears of Civil War Emerge Amid Treason Trial
Fears that South Sudan - the world's youngest nation - could plunge into a new civil war have intensified after the party of suspended Vice-President Riek Machar called for 'regime change'. The call came after Machar - currently under house arrest - was charged with murder, treason, and crimes against humanity. His party, the Sudan People's Liberation Movement In Opposition (SPLM-IO), denounced the charges as a political witch-hunt aimed at dismantling the 2018 peace accord that ended a five-year civil war.
Meanwhile, extra troops from neighboring Uganda have been deployed to South Sudan's capital, Juba, as tensions escalate. The latest crisis coincides with a UN report accusing South Sudanese officials of stealing billions of dollars in oil revenues, leaving millions without essential services and fueling the conflict.
What’s the background?
South Sudan gained independence from Sudan in 2011 after decades of struggle, led by the SPLM under President Salva Kiir. A civil war erupted just two years later when Kiir dismissed Machar from the vice presidency, accusing him of plotting a coup. The ensuing conflict resulted in an estimated 400,000 deaths and displaced over 2.5 million people. A peace deal reinstated Machar but significant components of the agreement remain unimplemented.
Why is there tension now?
The crisis intensified with violent clashes in March between the White Army militia, allied with Machar, and the army in Upper Nile state, leading to an escalation of military action against Machar and his associates. As of September, government charges against Machar included treason—the ultimate crime against the state—further aggravating tensions.
What about the 2018 peace deal?
While Machar's reinstatement was meant to be a stabilizing factor, many elements of the peace deal have yet to be fulfilled, including the integration of military forces and establishing a comprehensive judicial system to prosecute violators of human rights during the conflict.
How has corruption affected the situation?
Corruption has played a central role in the instability of South Sudan. A UN report accused government officials of misappropriating billions in oil revenues meant for development and public services, contributing to widespread poverty and unrest.
What is the problem between Machar and Kiir?
Long-standing ethnic and political divisions have complicated relations between Kiir and Machar. Current tensions have intensified due to postponed elections and increasing perceptions of dictatorship, further fueling calls for regime change.
How bad could things get?
The warning from the UN regarding the potential return to civil war highlights the precarious situation in South Sudan. Observers fear that renewed fighting could draw in regional powers, exacerbating the conflict and leading to a humanitarian crisis.
