As tensions simmer over Azerbaijan's human rights record, particularly following the 15-year prison sentence given to peace activist Bahruz Samadov, Europe's strategic engagement with Baku is under scrutiny. Samadov, a 30-year-old PhD student, has been sentenced on what many believe are fabricated charges, prompting outrage among his supporters who accuse the European Union (EU) of complicity through silence.

The EU had previously declared Azerbaijan a vital partner in efforts to diversify away from Russian natural gas post-Ukraine invasion, leading to an increase in diplomatic engagement. In this context, Aliyev has tightened his grip over the breakaway Karabakh region and has faced international condemnation for widespread human rights violations, including the suppression of dissent and press freedom. Despite calls for sanctions against Azerbaijan, high-ranking EU officials have largely refrained from directly criticizing the Aliyev administration.

During a contentious visit to Baku by Kaja Kallas, the EU’s top diplomat, critics highlighted the “great potential” of EU-Azerbaijan relations while more than 20 journalists remained imprisoned. Furthermore, Aliyev's defense of these arrests, citing a need to protect local media from foreign influence, has drawn ire from human rights advocates. Aliyev's administration has also forced international organizations, including the BBC, to close their local offices, further constraining the political landscape.

Eldar Mamedov, a former Latvian diplomat, expressed that EU policy practically grants Aliyev "a free hand" amid increasing concerns over repression in Azerbaijan. The EU's official stance insists on raising these issues both publicly and privately, condemning the shrinking civic space in the nation.

While Azerbaijan’s role in EU energy supplies is not monumental—accounting for about 4.3% of overall natural gas imports—certain EU states are significantly reliant on Azerbaijani gas due to the Southern Gas Corridor pipeline. Some states like Bulgaria source up to 40% of their natural gas from Azerbaijan, complicating the EU’s approach to leverage against the Aliyev government.

In the geopolitical chess game spurred by the Ukraine invasion, Azerbaijan has positioned itself strategically, aligning itself with Ukraine against Russian aggression, though it has not implemented sanctions on Moscow. Following recent tensions, including a plane crash involving Russian anti-aircraft fire, Aliyev appears to be solidifying his role as a counterweight in the region.

EU diplomats acknowledge their disappointment over Azerbaijan's human rights landscape but admit that limited options are available to influence the situation. Since the harsh sentencing of Samadov and other journalists, EU officials have labelled it “a worrying development” but have yet to produce substantive action. As calls for action grow louder, concerns for the safety of those detained and repressed in Azerbaijan continue to mount, potentially complicating the EU's energy ambitions with its moral obligations.