Under Donald Trump's peace plan for Gaza, the 'yellow line' - which Israel withdrew to earlier this month - is the first of three stages of Israeli military withdrawal. It leaves Israel in control of about 53% of the Gaza Strip.
Notably, one Israeli newspaper, Yedioth Ahronoth, referred to this line as 'effectively the new border' in Gaza, a claim that resonates with the far-right coalition partners of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The construction and fortification efforts along this boundary aim to delineate territory, while also blurring expectations, both from Mr. Netanyahu's allies in Washington and those at home.
The trajectory of these negotiations heavily depends on resolving challenging issues linked to the next stage of Trump's deal, particularly regarding Gaza's transfer of power and the disarmament of Hamas.
U.S. officials are eager to maintain order as these sensitive negotiations progress. Recently, U.S. Vice-President JD Vance visited Israel urging Netanyahu to prioritize peace talks. Trump's negotiators also met with the Israeli PM to reinforce this message.
Israeli news has reported that there is pressure from American allies for Netanyahu to exhibit 'restraint' amidst calls for another military response following an alleged Hamas ceasefire violation resulting in two soldier fatalities.
Despite a strong reaction advocating for war from National Security Minister, Netanyahu opted for a measured approach with a brief airstrike before reinstating the truce, emphasizing that attacks occurred within the yellow line, aiming to show compliance to Washington's expectations.
Netanyahu has been vocal in asserting that the conflict will persist until Hamas is dismantled, linking this to overall regional security. However, many commentators argue that the real decision-making power regarding Israel’s military actions in Gaza has shifted towards Washington.
The yellow line serves as an indicator of the delicate balance Netanyahu is attempting to maintain, especially as he faces pressures from his coalition partners to act decisively while also accommodating international expectations.
The hopes of many extremist settlers lie in this next stage proving complex enough to prevent policy changes, which would enable new settlements on Gazan land. There are even calls among hardliners to fully annex Gaza.
Meanwhile, a significant portion of the Israeli populace desires an end to the conflict, yearning for the safe return of hostages and soldiers. Netanyahu's history as a flexible politician may mean he strives to keep multiple options available for as long as possible, all while managing a phased deal filled with contingencies.
By agreeing to this first stage of withdrawal strategically, he maintained more than half of Gaza under Israeli control, all while securing the ceasefire to facilitate the return of hostages. Moving forward, the alignment of goals between Netanyahu's domestic allies and U.S. counterparts will become increasingly difficult.
Netanyahu has reiterated that any violations from Hamas could lead Israel back into war, stating, 'If this is achieved the easy way, so much the better; if not, it will be achieved the hard way.'
Trump echoed this sentiment, yet Washington's current stance appears tolerant to delays and complications in the agreement's progress, constraining Netanyahu's political maneuverability considerably.
