In brief
Bangladesh’s new prime minister Tarique Rahman has shifted the country’s foreign policy toward stronger ties with China, signing deals on the Teesta river and a special economic zone at Mongla port. India is easing restrictions and reinstating bus services, marking a thaw after the 2024 political upheaval. Analysts fear Chinese involvement near the Siliguri Corridor could alarm India, but Beijing reassures its independence. Bangladesh balances Chinese defence aid, debt, and strategic security needs in the north‑east, while still striving for a good neighbour in India.
Bangladesh’s new prime minister, Tarique Rahman, has signaled a strategic shift in the country’s foreign policy by prioritising Chinese investment while cautiously refilling ties with India.
During his first overseas trip, Rahman stopped in Malaysia and Beijing, a clear departure from the pattern of South Asian leaders arriving in New Delhi first. China’s role in Bangladesh is now central, especially after agreements on the Teesta river management and a special economic zone at Mongla port.
India’s reaction has been measured. The government easing visa restrictions for Bangladeshis and reinstating cross‑border bus services between Kolkata and Dhaka signals a thaw after August 2024’s political upheaval and Sheikh Hasina’s exile in Delhi.
Analysts point out that Bangladesh’s move to engage China in water‑management and infrastructure projects could give Beijing a foothold near the strategic Siliguri corridor – a sensitive area for India. Yet Beijing’s assurances that the cooperation is independent of third‑party influence have eased some Indian concerns.
Even as Bangladesh welcomes Chinese defence aid, which accounts for 70% of its arms imports, and owes more than $6Bn to Beijing, it still balances the need for a good neighbour in India, especially for security in the north‑east where separatist movements linger.
With Sheikh Hasina’s extradition pending in Delhi, Rahman’s diplomatic engagement remains a delicate balancing act. In the upcoming months, observers anticipate whether Dhaka will hold a high‑level visit to India, a move that could further tighten the region’s security calculus.
