In brief
A recent study published in the journal Science indicates that the frequency of the world's most devastating wildfires has increased by over 400% since the 1980s. Conducted by an international team of fire scientists, the research highlights the economic impact and human fatalities associated with these catastrophes, linking their rise to climate change and population growth in fire-prone areas. Regions in Europe and North America are particularly affected, with dramatic increases in both the destruction caused and loss of life during recent fires. Researchers call for better strategies to manage and mitigate the damage caused by these escalating wildfire threats.
WASHINGTON (AP) — Earth’s most destructive and expensive wildfires are now occurring four times as often as in the 1980s, primarily driven by climate change and human settlements encroaching on wildlands, according to a new analysis.
Published in the journal Science, the study shifts the focus from the commonly used metric of acreage burned to an examination of the economic and human toll of wildfires. Researchers found a 'climate-linked escalation of societally disastrous wildfires' over the last four decades.
The research team of Australian, American, and German fire scientists identified the 200 most damaging wildfires since 1980, measuring their impact based on the percentage of damage to the affected country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), adjusted for inflation. The analysis revealed that from 1980 to 2023, these catastrophic events have increased approximately 4.4 times, said the study's lead author, Calum Cunningham, a pyrogeographer at the Fire Centre at the University of Tasmania.
“It shows beyond a shadow of a doubt that we do have a major wildfire crisis on our hands,” Cunningham stated.
Notably, 43% of the most damaging fires occurred in the last decade. The 1980s averaged only two catastrophic wildfires per year, reaching a maximum of four in some years. By contrast, from 2014 to 2023, the average climbed to nearly nine annually, with a peak of 13 in 2021. There was a marked increase in the number of these fires starting in 2015, coinciding with increasingly extreme climatic conditions. According to Cunningham, the situation has worsened in the last two years past the initial study period.
The researchers found that Europe and North America lead in highly damaging wildfires, particularly in the Mediterranean region (Italy, Greece, Spain, and Portugal) and the Western United States, with California being notably affected. Cunningham pointed out that the climate in these areas is already prone to sudden dryness, further aggravated by global warming.
Moreover, the study indicates that the frequency of fires resulting in at least ten fatalities has tripled, citing examples like the 2018 Paradise fire in California and the 2023 Lahaina fire in Hawaii.
Cunningham emphasized the insufficiency of measuring fire impact solely by acreage burned, illustrating that a focused approach is necessary to deal with the fires that significantly disrupt human lives and ecosystems.
Despite the challenges of gathering comprehensive economic data, researchers utilized more than 40 years of global economic statistics from insurer Munich Re, combined with information from the International Disaster Database.
Amidst worsening fire weather conditions, Cunningham noted, 'climate change is significantly affecting the severity and incidence of wildfires' and called for a strategic approach to managing the risks associated with wildfires that result from both environmental and urbanization factors.
