Gaza War Death Toll Estimates Raise Questions About Reporting Accuracy

Tue Oct 21 2025 00:36:52 GMT+0300 (Eastern European Summer Time)

A new study reveals that the Palestinian death toll from the Gaza conflict may be significantly underreported, prompting calls for more reliable statistical methods.

Research published in The Lancet suggests the death toll in Gaza could be much higher than official reports, estimating up to 64,260 deaths due to traumatic injury, raising concerns about the accuracy of existing figures.

The ongoing war in Gaza has prompted significant debate regarding the reported death toll, with a new study indicating that the actual figures could be considerably higher than those released by the Hamas-run health ministry. A UK-led study published in The Lancet medical journal investigated the death toll within the first nine months following Hamas's initial assault on Israel on October 7, 2023. The study combined data from the health ministry, feedback from relatives regarding fatalities, and obituaries to arrive at its conclusions.

The researchers estimated that, as of June 30, 2024, approximately 64,260 Palestinians perished from traumatic injuries, indicating an alarming under-reporting of nearly 41% compared to the official statistics. Though the health ministry's data has been considered reliable by the UN, the figures do not differentiate between combatants and civilians. A recent UN report highlighted that most verified casualties during a six-month period were women and children, further complicating the narrative. Israel has expressed skepticism regarding the validity of the health ministry's numbers, with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) claiming they have "eliminated over 17,000 terrorists," though the basis for this figure remains unclear.

International access for journalists remains restricted in Gaza, complicating efforts for on-the-ground verification of claims and casualties. The team behind the Lancet study employed a "capture-recapture" statistical method, which has been utilized in studying death counts in past conflicts. By examining overlapping counts from various sources, the researchers inferred that the number of traumatic injury-related deaths could significantly exceed the health ministry's reported figures.

The Lancet's findings suggested a death toll range between 55,298–78,525 individuals, contrasting sharply with the 37,877 deaths reported by the health ministry. The range is contingent upon the accuracy of data interpretation, particularly surrounding "traumatic injuries," which presents an inherent challenge.

Analysis included in the study pointed out that 59% of the deceased whose sex and age were documented were women, children, and elderly individuals. The war in Gaza initially ignited after the Hamas attack that resulted in the deaths of some 1,200 people and the abduction of 251 hostages into Gaza. The health ministry currently cites the death toll from the Israeli military response at 46,006, predominantly consisting of civilians. The ongoing discourse around casualty figures underscores the urgent need for accurate reporting amid a highly contentious conflict.