The serenity of a late afternoon on the Moei River that divides Thailand from Myanmar is broken by three thunderous explosions. The ethnic Karen families bathing and playing in the water make a panicked dash for the river bank, as a plume of dark smoke rises from the trees behind them.
The conflict ignited by the Myanmar military's coup nearly five years ago has come back to the border. But the fighting this time is linked to the scam compounds, run by Chinese crime syndicates, which have proliferated in Karen State in the past two years.
We are working to completely eradicate online scam activities from their roots, the Myanmar junta's spokesman Gen Zaw Min Tun said. But there are good reasons for scepticism about the military's claims. Now, for the first time, Myanmar's long civil war and its scam crisis are entwined.
After losing control of large areas of the country to insurgent groups, this year the military junta has counter-attacked, reinforced by new conscripts and new equipment like drones supplied by Russia and China. In Karen State it has driven back the forces of its main opponent, the Karen National Union, which it has been fighting for eight decades, and which has been one of the staunchest opponents of the coup.
Suddenly, at the end of October, the army stormed KK Park, one of the largest and most notorious scam compounds in Karen State, driving out thousands of foreigners who had been running online fraud schemes there. The army posted videos of soldiers confiscating thousands of mobile phones, computers, and satellite dishes from Elon Musk's Starlink service. They began demolishing buildings with explosives.
This was a striking change of heart. For years, Myanmar's military rulers turned a blind eye to the multi-billion dollar scam business expanding rapidly along its border with Thailand. Local warlords allied to the military have been the principal protectors and business partners of the Chinese scam bosses, and have become very rich. Some of that money went into the coffers of the ruling generals. The junta has tried to blame the KNU for the scams, but there is no basis for this; unlike the other armed Karen groups, the KNU has kept its distance from the business.
Billions of dollars have been lost globally by victims of romance scams, people duped into get-rich-quick crypto schemes and elderly people investing their retirement money into bogus funds, many of which originate from these centres. The darkest side of the industry is felt in South East Asia, where these online fraud schemes are linked to human trafficking, money laundering, and extensive human rights abuses.
There is growing international concern, and co-ordination between law-enforcement agencies, to try to combat this scourge. The US has set up a multi-agency anti-scam task force. China, one of the Myanmar military junta's closest allies, has been pressing it to do more for years because thousands of Chinese citizens have fallen victim both to online fraud and to being trafficked and held for ransom in the compounds.
The tensions culminate in a dire illustration of the ongoing conflict and the junta's struggle for legitimacy as it plans to hold an election amid civil unrest.
As the operations continue, while the military has made high-profile efforts against scams, it is unclear how effectively it is dismantling these operations. Numerous scam centers remain focused elsewhere, casting doubt on the military's return to power.
