Leaked US Draft Plan Revealed: Prospects for Ending the Ukraine-Russia Conflict

Sat Nov 22 2025 06:07:25 GMT+0200 (Eastern European Standard Time)

A leaked draft of a US-Russia peace plan proposes significant territorial and military changes in Ukraine, with implications for international relations and regional stability.

A recently leaked draft peace plan proposes transferring control of certain Ukrainian territories to Russia and limiting Ukraine's armed forces to 600,000 personnel. The document outlines key points that could be acceptable to Ukraine while potentially infringing on its sovereignty. Significant commitments are made regarding Ukraine's strategic future, including its relationship with NATO and the EU. The plan raises concerns due to vague security guarantees and the potential re-integration of Russia into the global economy.

Leaked US Draft Plan Revealed: Prospects for Ending the Ukraine-Russia Conflict

The draft US-Russia peace plan has been widely leaked and proposes handing over areas of Ukraine's industrial eastern Donbas region still under Ukrainian control to the de facto control of Vladimir Putin's Russia. Latest versions of the text call for Ukraine to reduce the size of its armed forces to 600,000 personnel. This article explores the main components of the draft and the implications for Ukraine, Russia, and international relations.

Key Points of the Draft

The proposed plan contains 28 key points, some of which may be acceptable to Ukraine. Notably, Ukraine's sovereignty would be 'confirmed', with a non-aggression agreement involving robust security guarantees for Kyiv. However, details on these guarantees remain vague. Further, the plan specifies the need for snap elections within 100 days, which raises concerns due to the current martial law in Ukraine.

Contentious Territory Handovers and Military Cuts

Among the most controversial proposals is the handover of unoccupied Ukrainian territory and a corresponding reduction of its military forces. The draft includes provisions for Ukrainian forces withdrawing from certain eastern regions, which is fundamentally opposed by the majority of Ukrainians. Furthermore, limiting armed forces to 600,000 could compromise Ukraine's sovereignty and military readiness.

Ukraine's Future: EU Membership without NATO

The draft addresses Ukraine’s long-term strategic direction, suggesting that it should enshrine in its constitution a commitment not to join NATO, while gaining eligibility for EU membership. This presents a complex diplomatic situation for Ukraine, as the potential for NATO integration is constitutionally embedded in its national policy.

Russia's Return to the International Community

Elements of the plan include reintegrating Russia into the global economy and restoring its place in international bodies like the G8. This is met with skepticism given Russia's current geopolitical isolation.

Financial Implications and Asset Management

The draft proposes that $100 billion of frozen Russian assets be used to fund reconstruction efforts in Ukraine, with the U.S. receiving significant profits. However, previous estimates suggest far greater financial needs for rebuilding Ukraine, indicating that the proposed funds may not suffice.

Ambiguities and Future Negotiations

This draft plan is not viewed as a definitive peace proposal by many officials. Its vagueness around security and military aspects raises significant questions regarding genuine commitments from both sides. The need for a thorough reassessment and negotiation on key points remains paramount in any potential peace agreement.