Long-Term Drought in the Southwest: A New Study Predicts Decades of Dryness

Wed Oct 22 2025 08:30:34 GMT+0300 (Eastern European Summer Time)

Scientists warn that the ongoing megadrought affecting the American Southwest could persist for decades due to climate patterns linked to global warming.

Researchers reveal that a persistent dry spell could last until 2050 or beyond due to a stable warm water pattern in the Pacific Ocean influenced by human-induced climate change. This alarming prediction raises concerns for agriculture and water supply in the region.

The megadrought currently gripping the American Southwest has devastated water supplies, agriculture, and heightened wildfire risks for nearly 25 years, marking an unprecedented dry spell not seen in over 1,200 years. New findings published in the journal Nature Geoscience present a grim prognosis: This parched period may linger for decades.

Led by Victoria Todd, a doctoral student at the University of Texas at Austin, the research indicates that the ongoing drought is not just a temporary setback but a serious pattern exacerbated by global warming. According to Todd, the Pacific Ocean's temperature cycle appears “stuck,” suggesting that unless human-induced warming is mitigated, the Southwest may suffer from these dry conditions into 2050 and potentially 2100.

The implications of continued drought are severe for the region, especially in agriculture and industries like computer-chip manufacturing that rely on significant water resources. Researchers have sought insights from ancient droughts, examining sediment layers from Stewart Bog in New Mexico and Hunters Lake in Colorado to reconstruct past moisture levels.

Their findings, indicating that historical dry periods coincided with a phase of planetary warmth, shed light on current conditions. During such past warm epochs, a significant warm water "blob" formed in the Pacific, impacting jet stream patterns and causing prolonged drought in the Southwest.

The study draws parallels to present-day conditions, where a similar warm blob may have become fixated due to human greenhouse gas emissions. Climate expert A. Park Williams from UCLA commended the study's rigor while cautioning that current models may not fully capture the extent of dryness inflicted by the Pacific's warm phase, suggesting future drought risk assessments could also be underestimated.

In addition to natural climate variations, human-induced warming exacerbates drought by drawing more moisture from soil and vegetation, altering precipitation types, and disrupting long-standing weather patterns, including those connected to phenomena like El Niño.

Pedro DiNezio of the University of Colorado Boulder notes that recent trends challenge conventional climate understanding, raising alarms about the extent of human impact on these natural systems. As climate conditions shift, experts emphasize the need for comprehensive assessment and action to manage water resources effectively in the American Southwest.