In brief
Hurricane Melissa hit Jamaica as a Category 5 storm on October 29, 2023, causing widespread destruction. A study indicates that climate change has made the atmospheric and ocean conditions leading to such intense hurricanes six times more likely. With sea temperatures 1.5°C above average, Melissa rapidly intensified, raising concerns about increasingly severe storms due to global warming.
Was climate change to blame for the strength of Hurricane Melissa?
Hurricane Melissa was one of the strongest hurricanes to ever hit the Caribbean.
The atmospheric and ocean conditions that led to the rapid intensification of the hurricane were made six times more likely by climate change, a World Weather Attribution study has found.
The storm grew from a tropical storm to a major Category 4 hurricane in a day, fueled by warmer than average sea temperatures.
It made landfall in Jamaica as a powerful Category 5 hurricane and subsequently struck eastern Cuba the next day.
Days before landfall, forecasters indicated that conditions were ripe for quick intensification, with the Caribbean Sea approximately 1.5°C warmer than average. This deep heat provided a continuous supply of warm water for Melissa's development.
The study concluded that climate change has also amplified wind speeds and rainfall associated with the storm; maximum wind speeds were increased by 7% due to climate change.
As noted by Jayaka Campbell, Senior Lecturer at the University of the West Indies, Jamaica, Hurricane Melissa's catastrophic landfall is not an anomaly, it is the canary in the coal mine for our warming world.
While Jamaica has some infrastructure to withstand hurricane conditions, Cuba suffered severe damage, affecting homes, roads, and agricultural areas. This event highlights the urgent need for climate action, particularly ahead of COP30, the upcoming UN Climate Change conference.
For more stories on this issue, including detailed analyses of hurricane dynamics and the historical context of such storms, stay tuned to our coverage.
